By Zach Carter and Ben Yeargin
Every year before the MAAC women’s basketball season starts, the 13 coaches in the conference vote on how they think the teams will finish.
Sometimes the coaches predict the conference dead on, other times they predict dead wrong. Most times, they meet somewhere in the middle.
The MAAC Tournament tips off at noon on Tuesday with No. 8 Manhattan and No. 9 Canisius playing each other. In anticipation of that, QU Sports Page’s Zach Carter and Ben Yeargin take a look back at what the MAAC coaches predicted the conference standings would be — and how right or wrong they were.
The order below follows the order in which the coaches voted each team to finish in the preseason poll, followed by each team’s actual finish heading into the conference tournament.
1. Fairfield Stags (25-4, 13-1 MAAC)
Actual finish: 1
The coaches hit a home run here. Despite the reigning MAAC Player of the Year (and also preseason player of the year) graduate guard Janelle Brown tearing her ACL, Fairfield thrived in conference play.
The Stags finished 19-1 while leading the MAAC in scoring offense and scoring defense. They also received votes in the AP Poll for the second-consecutive year.
Fairfield is the deepest team in the conference. Its offense is led by sophomore roadrunner (a term the Stags use in place of forward) Meghan Andersen, who is averaging 15 points per game, but the Stags also have two other eligible players who average at least eight or more points a game in sophomore guard Kaety L’Amoreaux and senior roadrunner Emina Selimovic.
Anyone on Fairfield can take and make a three and its best players can score at all three levels, making the Stags difficult to defend.
In the MAAC Tournament, Fairfield is the No. 1 seed and favorite to win it all, but with its No. 51 NET ranking, the Stags have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament with an at-large bid.
But whether in preseason or post, Fairfield cemented itself as the conference’s best team.
– Yeargin
2. Siena Saints (17-12, 14-6 MAAC)
Actual finish: 3
The coaches poll set expectations high for the Saints, who met the bar by rattling off their second-consecutive third-place finish in the conference. Success all year has been predicated on the team’s backcourt, fronted by junior Teresa Seppala and graduate Ahniysha Jackson. Both guards rank in the top two on the team of minutes per game and points per game by a wide margin.
The poll named Seppala a projected First Team All-MAAC recipient and Jackson a second team finish. The crystal ball was spot on, with both being announced March 10 to the first and second teams, respectively. Seppala made it unanimously.
Last year, Niagara bounced Siena from Atlantic City in a 17-point win. The Purple Eagles outscored the Saints 34-11 in the first quarter, and the Saints were never able to climb back from the deficit.
But the Saints are surging as of late, winning their final four games of the year. In their most recent game against conference bottom feeder Rider, the Saints drubbed the Broncs by 37 points. Head coach Terry Primm and his squad have all their ducks in a row heading into the conference tournament, looking to wash away the pain of last year’s semi-final loss.
– Carter
T-3. Niagara (3-25, 2-18 MAAC)
Actual finish: 13
Reality and prediction sometimes don’t mix.
What the coaches thought they were voting on in the preseason was a Purple Eagles team that just pushed Fairfield to overtime in the MAAC Tournament and retained two of their three leading scorers. They were predicting a squad that would bounce right back up and wreak havoc on the conference.
Instead, what it received was a mostly inexperienced roster that had the sixth-worst scoring defense in the country. The Purple Eagles didn’t win a MAAC game until Feb. 27 against Iona.
What doesn’t help is Niagara’s two best players missed chunks of the season. Senior forward Aaliyah Parker redshirted this season and junior forward Amelia Strong played 16 of the Purple Eagles 28 games.
You can’t predict injuries, but the coaches could’ve seen an inexperienced roster that lacked Division I-depth. In other words, the MAAC coaches were dead wrong on this one.
– Yeargin
T-3. Quinnipiac (26-3, 18-2 MAAC)
Actual finish: 2
Both Quinnipiac and the coaches poll anticipated success for the Bobcats in 2024-25. Where the predictions went askew was more nuanced — just how much success the Bobcats would have eluded the MAAC’s coaches. Few expected a freshman from Israel to take the league by storm and grow the Bobcats into one of the most formidable mid-major teams in the nation.
Gal Raviv did just that.
A starter in every game for Quinnipiac this year, Raviv displayed excellence in all facets. She averaged 18.0 points and 5.7 assists and made the All-MAAC First Team despite not being named to any of the three teams in the preseason. Not to mention, she won rookie and conference player of the year.
Quinnipiac’s supporting cast in Jackie Grisdale, Karson Martin, Anna Foley and others make this team especially dangerous. The Bobcats have built up a conference-best defense, limiting teams to just 54.4 points per game, and handed Fairfield its first conference loss in two years March 8.
The Bobcats outperformed the preseason poll’s expectations and solidified themselves as one of the conference’s premier teams. They should make some noise in March, going as far as their first-year phenom will take them.
– Carter
5. Sacred Heart (9-20, 5-15 MAAC)
Actual finish: 12
Junior guard Ny’Ceara Pryor was arguably the best player in the conference this season. She led the MAAC in scoring per game and steals per game (she leads Division I in the latter category). In all other worlds, she would be accepting her third-straight conference player of the year award for her work this season.
But Sacred Heart finished No. 12 in the MAAC with a 5-15 conference record and missed the MAAC Tournament altogether.
How? Terrible shooting and a lack of offensive production behind her. The reigning NEC champions shot 37.9% on the season and league-worst 24.4% from three. In 16 of the Pioneers’ 20 conference games, their opponents shot better than them.
Pryor was incredible this year. She also finished seventh in rebounds per game as a 5-foot-3-inch guard, but no one else stepped up. Sacred Heart showed flashes of its brilliance, but never pieced together any notable wins.
The Pioneers will have seven long months to improve before it goes again for year two in the MAAC. The coaches laid a massive goose egg on this one.
– Yeargin
6. Manhattan (15-24, 9-11 MAAC)
Actual finish: 8
A two-spot differential for Manhattan is not enough to keep them out of the tournament — they’ll take on Canisius Tuesday at noon — but it is enough to change the narrative around this group.
A sixth-place finish would have put Manhattan in the upper half of the conference’s 13 teams. At No. 8, they officially take on an underdog persona. Ignoring the Jaspers’ record quickly, this team has performed very well under the hood, better than most give them credit for. The Jaspers held the third-best point margin in the conference, one of four teams to boast a positive differential between its offensive and defensive output.
Team defense is a big factor in that, holding opponents to a conference-best 36.8% percentage from the floor, while shooting 42.5% from the floor themselves, third-best in the MAAC. The Jaspers also lead the conference at 4.48 blocks per game. They grab the most rebounds per game (37.1) of any team in the conference and average the second-most assists of any team (15.9).
With an abundance of promising statistics in mind, let’s bring their record back into play. The portrayal now shifts. At No. 8 in the MAAC heading into the tournament, this is no longer an upper-half team like the coaches anticipated. This is a group that underperformed in the regular season, but one that has all the tools it needs in its toolbox to pull off a surprising run.
– Carter
7. Mount St. Mary’s (14-15, 12-8 MAAC)
Actual finish: 4
In front of Mount St. Mary’s in the preseason poll is Manhattan, but the Jaspers were in front of the Mountaineers by over 26 points. That’s a clear indicator that the Mount didn’t belong in the conference’s upper echelon.
Come March, Mount finished four spots ahead of Manhattan in the MAAC.
Fueled by career years from senior guard Jo Raflo, graduate guard Anna LeMaster and freshman guard Gabrielle Kennerly, the Mount was the best three-point shooting team in the conference. It shot 35% from deep.
Additionally, the Mountaineers had a seven-game win streak in conference that featured a dominant performance over Siena and an overtime win at Quinnipiac. However , they’ve also had losing streaks in conference too. The Mount previously lost four of five conference games before beating Marist on the final day of the season.
The reason for its losses coincides with its field-goal percentage. When the Mount shot under 40% in conference play, it went 2-7.
For that, the coaches deserve some grace, but not a complete absolution of responsibility. They were wrong, and underestimated a team that can be dominant.
– Yeargin
8. Iona (10-20, 8-12 MAAC)
Actual finish: 10
The Gaels were predicted to be a lower-half playoff team, and while that expectation did realize, it only did so by a minuscule margin. Iona grabbed the very last spot in the MAAC tournament in underwhelming fashion, losing six straight games to end the regular season.
The Gaels did not have a single player average over 10 points on the year, with the two closest players, Ella Fajardo and Judith Gomez, averaging 9.6 and 9.5 respectively. Unlike most MAAC teams, the Gaels’ roster is void of the X-factor that one usually relies on when this time of the year rolls around. Like Raviv for Quinnipiac. Janneh for St. Peter’s. Seppala and Jackson for Siena. Iona lacks that special talent, and it could hurt them come Tuesday.
A conference will almost always have its outliers, the teams who lose just a handful of games and the teams that barely win just a handful of games, but the middle is where the majority of programs fall. Iona was one of those teams. Its stock is low — the lowest its been all season — and if the Gaels are able to beat No. 7 Saint Peter’s in the opening round, they’ll have to take on No. 2 Quinnipiac the very next day.
But then again, March means madness.
– Carter
9. Rider (7-22, 5-15 MAAC)
Actual finish: 11
The coaches weren’t too far off with this prediction, but there’s still a large difference between a playoff team and one that’s not.
Rider’s case was one of single digits.
The Broncs finished three games outside of a postseason bid. In MAAC play, they lost four games by single digits. If they won those four games instead, Rider is a MAAC Tournament team. But reality is they didn’t.
There were some positives for Rider, though.
Senior guard Gabby Turco had an excellent year, averaging 13.9 points per game with 3.5 rebounds per contest too. Also, freshman forward Winner Bartholomew likely earned herself a spot on the All-MAAC Rookie Team with her 8.3 points per game and 3.8 boards per game.
The middle of the MAAC was hard to predict for anyone; the coaches weren’t that far off. But still, they were somewhat wrong.
– Yeargin
10. Saint Peter’s (11-18, 9-11 MAAC)
Actual finish: 7
The coaches swung and missed on Saint Peter’s, figuring they might sneak into the tournament as the final team. Or they might not. Then again, the poll is never exactly right. But No. 7 is much different from No. 10. If Saint Peter’s beats Iona in the opening round, it won’t have to play Fairfield the day after, though Quinnipiac does not present much of an easier matchup.
The Peacocks rely predominantly on one woman — Fatmata Janneh. At 18.3 points per game, she more than doubled the scoring of the team’s second-highest scorer Layla Laws at 9.0 ppg. Her selection to the All-MAAC First Team is more than deserved, given where Saint Peter’s might rank in the conference had Janneh not been around all year to produce at the level she has.
Again, the middle of any conference is difficult to perceive. The coaches shouldn’t be on the hook for an egregious miss, but the fact of the matter is they overlooked a Saint Peter’s team that has outperformed expectations this year.
– Carter
11. Marist (16-14, 11-9 MAAC)
Actual finish: 5
On the surface, Marist looked doomed. The Red Foxes finished last season at the bottom of the MAAC and lost their only MAAC Tournament game 60-47 to Mount St. Mary’s.
Additionally, they lost their two leading scorers in forward Zaria Shazer and guard Kiara Fisher.
But right below the surface was a young core of players that was eager to prove itself, and they did. Marist plays the Mount again in the MAAC Tournament this year, but as the No. 5 seed.
Redshirt junior guard Lexie Tarul and junior center Morgan Lee are the duo that’s powered the Red Foxes offense this season. They’re one and two in points per game on the squad. Additionally, freshman guard Danielle Williamsen notched an All-MAAC Rookie Team-worthy nine points per game this year.
Junior forward Ciara Croker, junior guard Jackie Piddock, sophomore guard Julia Corsentino and senior guard Catie Cunningham all play significant roles on Marist. Croker and Piddock round out the starting five, while Cunningham and Corsentino have the most minutes off the bench.
The coaches got this one very wrong, and doubted a young, deep Red Foxes squad.
– Yeargin
12. Merrimack (13-16, 9-11 MAAC)
Actual finish: 6
In support of the MAAC coaches, this one is not on them.
2024-25 was Merrimack’s very first season as a member of the MAAC and it’s impossible to know exactly how much homework each program’s coach had done on the Warriors at the time the poll was conducted. Merrimack was middle of the pack in the slightly-less competitive NEC last year, finishing 8-8 and losing in the second round to eventual MAAC conference-mate Sacred Heart.
Hence, the easy solution is to undervalue them.
The Warriors made some noise this season, led by sophomore guard Thalia Shepard at 13.0 points per game. They’ve rebounded well all year — second in the conference in rebounds per game behind Manhattan, doing so especially well on the offensive glass. Their 11.7 offensive boards per game ranks third in the conference.
The margin between Merrimack’s expected finish and actual finish was quite large, but don’t expect it to be that big again next year. Now that coaches have seen the Warriors at least once, there’s a good chance they will more accurately judge Merrimack’s finish when it comes time to take the 2025-26 poll.
– Carter
13. Canisius (10-20, 9-11 MAAC)
Actual finish: 9
Canisius was a complete unknown entering this season. No one expected anything of it, granted there wasn’t anything to base predictions on.But the Golden Griffins surprised the MAAC.
Head coach Tiffany Swoffard’s squad earned their way into the MAAC Tournament by beating Rider on March 6 and now have a date with Manhattan to tip off the tournament.
Graduate guard Jaela Johnson notched 11.6 points per game while leading the squad in minutes. Sophomore forward Shariah Gailes finished third in the conference with 8.3 rebounds per game.
The Golden Griffins’ biggest question mark heading into the tournament is a lack of MAAC Tournament experience on the roster. But if Canisius taught us anything this year, it’s to expect nothing from them.
Not even the coaches expected anything of the Golden Griffins, which may be what they want you to think heading into the MAAC Tournament too.
– Yeargin
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